China Seeks to Expel U.S. Forces from Middle East with Egyptian and Iranian Backing, By Dr. Nadia Helmy
Many Chinese security and military circles are seeking to research the future of US bases in the Middle East and the possibility of developing an urgent Chinese military plan to pursue and eliminate them.
July 14, 2025
Many Chinese think tanks and political, intelligence, security, and military circles are seeking to research the future of US bases in the Middle East and Gulf regions and the possibility of developing an urgent Chinese military plan to pursue and eliminate them for obstructing China’s interests and partnerships through the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative in the Gulf region and the Middle East in particular. This is especially true after a number of these US military bases in the region were used to launch attacks on China’s allies in the region, such as Iran. The United States used the Qatari Al Udeid Air Base to launch military strikes on a number of Iranian nuclear facilities, which angered and irritated Beijing. Here, China may support the game of political pressure by the countries of the region to expel US forces with the help of its close Iranian ally, as China sees the US military presence in the region as an obstacle to its growing influence. To achieve China’s ambitious military plan to eliminate and pursue all US military bases in the region and the Gulf, Iranian military forces, with indirect support from China and Russia, have targeted the US military presence in the region for several years. This has been achieved through the (Imam Ali Iranian Military Base), which is an Iranian military base located in the city of “Albukamal ”in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor, on the border with Iraq.
China is confident in the Egyptian military’s ability to assist it in achieving this ambitious Chinese military plan to eliminate all US military bases in the Middle East, the Gulf, and Africa. Egypt is the only Arab country without US military bases, and Egypt is the main gateway to the African continent. China may, in the foreseeable future, help eliminate the US Africa Command, known by its military acronym, “USAFRICOM,” which is a unit composed of unified combat forces under the direction of the US Department of Defense. It is responsible for all US military operations and military relations with 53 African countries, excluding Egypt, all of which fall within the scope of US Central Command.
In this context, the Chinese, Iranian, and Egyptian military machines closely monitor all movements of the US military and the only US military base inside Israel. The US also uses this base for military espionage on all countries near Tel Aviv’s borders, most notably Egypt and its Chinese and Russian allies. Washington used its military base in Israel to monitor the joint military exercises between Egypt and China, known as “Civilization Eagle,” in April 2025. Israeli and American military, security, and intelligence circles viewed these exercises with suspicion, distrust, and caution, fearing that China, through its joint military exercises with Egypt, was sending a message that China would defend Egypt and all of China’s allies in the region if they were exposed to the threat of direct or indirect military intervention by Washington and Tel Aviv. The joint Egyptian-Chinese Civilization Eagle exercises also carried direct threatening messages to both Washington and Tel Aviv, stating that China would stand by Egypt, its leadership, its people, and its army in confronting any attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to the Egyptian Sinai and the Egyptian borders. For this reason, the only American military base in Tel Aviv, located near Israel’s Mount Keren, has been closely and continuously monitoring all Chinese and Egyptian military movements in this context. Currently, the only active foreign military installations on Israeli soil are American bases, including the AN/TPY-2 missile early warning radar station, located specifically on Israel’s Mount Keren, known militarily as the AN/TPY-2.
China supports President “Abdel Fattah El-Sisi ”and the Egyptian army militarily in the face of any American and Israeli pressure regarding the forced displacement of the population of the Gaza Strip to the Egyptian border and the Egyptian Sinai. All Chinese military and intelligence circles are studying all aspects, forms, and developments of tension on the Egyptian-Israeli border, with the unprecedented escalation of Egyptian military deployment in Sinai. This coincided with these joint air maneuvers between Egypt and China, which raised clear concerns in Tel Aviv, which considered these Egyptian military movements with China a violation of the Camp David Accords. This comes at a time when relations between the two sides have been rapidly deteriorating since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023.
In response to all these US military moves against China and its allies in the region and globally, China has made military access and the establishment of military bases outside the Chinese mainland a crucial element of Beijing’s global military ambitions to preserve its global network of interests and its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. China is developing an ambitious military plan to establish numerous military and naval bases in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf to preserve its extensive network of interests through “the Belt and Road Initiative”, with most Arab and Gulf countries joining China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. In this area, China seeks to compete with the military reach of the United States. To do so, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese Navy will need to establish numerous networks of military bases and other forms of military access to a number of areas targeted by China in the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East. China is also developing a long-term plan to develop military bases in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The Chinese military has multiple motives for establishing military bases abroad, particularly in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf, whether for offensive, defensive, or both reasons. With regard to China’s strategic competition with the United States in particular, these Chinese military bases, if permitted to be established, would allow China to maintain a sustained presence in the region and gain exposure to it. This would increase China’s ability to intervene in crises that may arise in the Middle East and the Gulf on a broader scale and more rapidly than ever before. These overseas military bases are also expected to provide China with the ability to launch large-scale combat operations far from the country in which they were established.
To date, there is no announced Chinese plan to expel American military bases from the Middle East. However, China is attempting to establish a military foothold in the Middle East and Gulf through a variety of Chinese military mechanisms. These simple, transitional, or temporary forms of Chinese military presence in the region, ranging from allowing military overflights, joint military exercises, and increased Chinese arms sales to countries in the region and the Gulf to resupplying warships and operating small military facilities, are all carefully considered steps by China to establish a military presence in the region, paving the way for the establishment of large-scale Chinese military bases. Several analyses indicate that China is seeking to increase its military influence in the region, including reducing the US military presence with the help of Iran. This trend comes within the framework of China’s efforts to expand its geopolitical and economic influence, coinciding with the decline of the United States in some regions. China seeks to increase its influence in the Middle East through several mechanisms, most notably economic investment. China is investing heavily in infrastructure and energy projects in the Middle East through the Belt and Road Initiative, creating economic interdependence. Military cooperation, as China strengthens its military cooperation with all countries of the region, the Gulf, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia through arms sales, joint military training, and joint military exercises, in addition to the path of Chinese diplomacy, as China plays an increasing role in resolving regional conflicts and seeks to present itself as a reliable partner.
China is benefiting from the influence of the United States’ retreat in some parts of the Middle East and exploiting this American strategic vacuum following the US withdrawal from some areas in the Middle East, which left a strategic vacuum that China was able to exploit. In this context, China seeks to change the map of alliances in the Gulf and the Middle East, as some countries in the region seek new partners to compensate for the decline of American influence.
In this context, China has developed an urgent military plan to assist its close Iranian ally, especially after the direct Israeli and then American military strikes on a number of Iranian nuclear facilities. Here, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued a statement, with indirect support from China, Iran’s ally in the region, stressing that “any additional American aggression against Iran will lead to the collapse of the American military presence in the region,” describing American bases in the region as “major weak points and the pillar of this war-hungry regime.” On June 23, 2025, Iran bombed several US bases, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and other US bases in Iraq. The attack came as part of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel and in response to the US military attack that targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities. Doha announced that it had intercepted the Iranian missiles. The “Iranian Bashaer al-Fatah operation” is the second Iranian attack of its kind targeting US bases in the Middle East and the Gulf region, following the “Martyr Soleimani operation.” A week before the attack, the US consulate in Erbil, Iraq, was attacked, allegedly orchestrated by Iran, according to US accusations.
Prior to the start of the Israeli military attacks on Iran, a number of Iranian military officials, with indirect military support from China, confirmed that “Iran is prepared to strike the US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean if it is attacked by the United States.” Tehran also announced, with support from Beijing, that “it will strike the joint US-UK naval base at Diego Garcia in response to any US attack.”
Hence, tensions in the Middle East escalated following the United States’ evacuation of diplomats from its embassy in Iraq, along with those from Kuwait and Bahrain. This American move comes in the wake of Iranian threats to attack American military bases in the Middle East and Gulf region if a conflict erupts between them. China indirectly supports this threat, as it prepares for a large-scale, well-thought-out military plan to expel American military bases from the Gulf region in particular and the Middle East. This plan aims to prevent American tutelage over the Gulf countries and the region, thereby obstructing China’s interests and influence in the region.
Dr.Nadia Helmy, Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Politics and Economics / Beni Suef University- Egypt. An Expert in Chinese Politics, Sino-Israeli relationships, and Asian affairs- Visiting Senior Researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)/ Lund University, Sweden- Director of the South and East Asia Studies Unit
Southeast Asia July 15, 2025
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